Infographics COVID-19: What does the epidemic rebound in Europe look like?

L'Europe fait-elle face à une quatrième vague ? Depuis le début du mois de juin, de nombreux pays européens ont vu les contaminations au Covid-19 repartir à la hausse. En France, cette reprise épidémique a été amorcée début juillet, amenant Emmanuel Macron à étendre progressivement le recours au pass sanitaire, afin d'inciter la population à aller se faire vacciner.

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France is not the only country to experience an increase in the number of cases.As shown by our graph below, the health situation with our European neighbors is also deteriorating.

In question ?The Delta variant, in particular, which is "today the majority in the vast majority of European countries", reports Edouard Mathieu, analyst for Our World in Data (in English), an organism which observes, among other things, the evolution ofThe pandemic in the world.Important disparities, however, appear between countries.

In the United Kingdom and Portugal, an increase started in early June

At the beginning of June, the United Kingdom, like Portugal, were among the European countries presenting the lowest numbers of new daily cases of COVVI-19: about 50 cases for a million inhabitants.These two countries had also escaped the third wave of last spring.

However, from the beginning of June, new contaminations increased, with more than 50% of new cases each week.As early as mid-June, the United Kingdom, which had to push the last stage of its disconception, and Portugal became European countries where the virus was circulating.This increase has not stopped since and has even accelerated in England, which reaches more than 500 daily cases for a million inhabitants, a new pace across the Channel since January.In Portugal, the incidence rate amounts to 287 cases for a million inhabitants.

The role of the Delta variant, around 60% more contagious than the previously majority variants in Europe, seems preponderant in the early start of the epidemic in these countries.This is in any case the analysis of Thibault Fiolet, doctoral student in epidemiology."These are the countries where the Delta variant was the most present and it was also where we had the first epidemic recovery," he explains to Franceinfo.In mid-June, the change in the virus was already in the majority, while it represented less than 20% of new cases in other European countries.According to the latest figures, the Delta variant today represents more than 80% of cases in Portugal, and almost 100% in the United Kingdom.

In Spain and Greece, an acceleration of the epidemic at the end of June

The epidemic recovery later intervened in Spain and Greece, towards the end of June.However, it was faster than in the United Kingdom or in Portugal, the weekly increase reaching quickly +150%.During the week from June 28 to July 5, the incidence rate went from 85 to 225 cases for a million inhabitants in Spain.The following week, he jumped from 78 to 190 in Greece.

The situation is particularly worrying in Spain.The country was more than 430 daily cases for a million inhabitants on July 14, a figure that the country had no longer reached for almost 6 months, and is still in a dynamic of strong progression.It should be noted that Spain was one of the European countries where the virus circulated the most, even before the epidemic rebound.Thus, the daily impact rate is never descended below 70 for a million inhabitants.In France, this figure went below 30 at the end of June.

For Thibault Fiolet, the role of the Delta variant seems again decisive: on June 28, the last date for which there are data for a majority of European countries, Spain had almost 50% of cases linked to the Delta variant among the newsinfections, one of the highest figures in Europe behind the United Kingdom and Portugal.In Greece, where the inhabitants came out of a strict containment of several months, the lack of data on the variants makes the analysis more difficult.But the Greek authorities take this threat seriously and have declared new measures similar to those announced on Monday by Emmanuel Macron.

In France, Switzerland and Belgium, a progressive epidemic recovery in July

In France, Switzerland and Belgium, it was in the first days of July that the increase in new cases was drawn.It was slower than in Spain or Greece.For the moment, the number of new daily cases has not exceeded 120 contaminations per million inhabitants in Belgium.France and Switzerland displayed daily impact rates of 58 and 40 to 14 July.

These three countries are experiencing an evolution close to the European average, where the number of cases has generally doubled since the beginning of July, going from just over 50,000 daily cases to no less than 100,000, between the 1st andthe 14th of July.

At the end of June, the presence of the Delta variant in these countries was still in the European average, with a range of 25 to 40% of sick people infected with this mutation in the virus.The latest public health figures France show that this variant is gradually imposed on French territory: it represented two thirds of new contaminations on the week of July 6 to 12.This gradual arrival of the variant also seems to explain this rebound, for the moderate moment, as explained to Franceinfo Olivier Guérin, member of the scientific council.

In the Netherlands, a recent explosion

In the Netherlands, the curve makes you dizzy.As of July 5, the country presented a level of circulation of low virus, comparable to that of Belgium.In 10 days the number of daily cases has multiplied by almost 10, going from just over 800 to almost 8,000 cases.Unheard of in Europe since the start of the pandemic.The country has caught up in the United Kingdom in terms of circulation of the virus, in the space of only two weeks.

What happened ?"This new wave being very recent, the reasons are currently difficult to identify," said Edouard Mathieu.Like everywhere in Europe, the Delta variant participates in the recovery.But on June 28, he still represented only a quarter of the new contaminations.This figure made the Netherlands one of the western European countries with the lowest circulation of this mutation in the virus.

For Thibault Fiolet, "it is especially 18-30 year olds who are contaminated".He thus argued that "the first place of contamination identified by local authorities are restaurants" which reopened at the end of April.The RIVM (Equivalent of Public Health France in the Netherlands) also put forward in a report of July 9 (in Dutch) the appearance of several clusters in student evenings organized at the hotel or at the restaurant.A music festival organized in early July also participated in the epidemic takeover, with a thousand contaminated people, despite the use of the health pass.

In Germany, Italy and Austria, a very low virus circulation

They seem, for the moment, sheltered.In Italy, Austria and Germany, the fourth wave seems far enough.Admittedly, the number of cases has increased in the first two weeks of July, but the incidence rate remains very low, with less than 25 daily cases for a million inhabitants.To give an idea, France has not experienced such low circulation of the virus for almost a year.

Why does the epidemic mark the step, even though the Delta variant is in the majority, with a share greater than that present in the Netherlands?Two factors are to be emphasized.First, the low prior circulation of the virus: these countries had reached an incidence rate of less than 12 at the end of June.In addition, binding health measures have been maintained there, as in Austria and Germany.The two German -speaking countries have expanded the use of the health pass for several weeks already.The document is thus necessary to go to the restaurant or to the hairdresser.