COP26 and the Glasgow pact, an insufficient advance

How to assess the contribution of this COP and the Glasgow pact?

The answer depends on expectations.The objective of each COP is not to resolve the insufficient global ambition but to advance multilateral commitments and their implementation rules.The success of a COP must therefore be evaluated in terms of progress since the situation which precedes it towards the objective of limiting the impacts of climate change.One of the objectives of this 26th COP was nevertheless to take stock of the progress made since the Paris Agreement.Let's be clear, the commitments made upstream and this COP are insufficient to align with the Paris agreement and its objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C.First, not all countries have revised their commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, notably China, India or Australia.For their part, developed countries have still not adopted sufficiently ambitious objectives (USA aligned with 3 ° C of warming, the EU with 2.3 ° C, Canada with 3.4 ° c) and did not keep their promise of funding for developing countries for adaptation to climate change and the attenuation of emissions.One of the blocking points has also been the lack of will of developed countries, including the EU and the USA, to accept the implementation of a mechanism to decide to compensate for the mainly linked climatic impacts, for the'Instant, to their historic programs.This request whose recognition is progressing will be on the program of the next two COPs and should continue to condition the commitments of the most affected countries.

Notable progress...

Significant progress is the call in COP26's decision to reduce the use of "uncompensated" coal and ineffective "subsidies to fossil fuels.If China and India blocked at the last minute a call for the release of coal, the discussion on the end of fossil fuels is engaged and the message sent to civil society and to companies on the management of the world is clear.This is indeed the first time that a decision explicitly mentions fossil fuels.On the sidelines of the COP, several groups of countries have separately adopted voluntary commitments at the end of deforestation and reduction of methane emissions from 30% to 2030, and the end of fossil fuels subsidies abroad from2022 whose implementation will be crucial to reach the objective 1.5 ° C.

...still very insufficient

In the end, current policies lead us to a warming of 2.7 ° C, the national objectives at 2030 would limit warming to 2.4 ° C, and even 2.1 ° C If the long-term commitments of complete decarbonation are kept (these are often vague and not transcribed in national laws).Finally, the most optimistic interpretation of initiatives of initiatives (not legally binding) made on the sidelines of the COP remains under 1.9 ° C.The emissions expected from the commitments to 2030 remain twice as superior to those that would put us on the way to 1.5 ° C.This COP and the announcements attached to it are very insufficient in view of the global climate issue and much more efforts will be necessary to be able to carry out the Paris agreement.

But hope persists!

This possibility of success, which is reduced from year to year, is however a reason for hope and a certain relief in view of the situation both diplomatic and climatic before the COP26.The Glasgow pact adopted at this COP marks several advances.First, the lens of 1.5 ° C est clair et réaffirmé et le processus multilatéral nécessaire, quoique lent et insuffisant, reste en vie malgré les tensions diplomatiques internationales et l’opposition de beaucoup d’Etats à l’action climatique.The countries have recognized the insufficiency of their respective objectives and have undertaken to correct them collectively while rebalancing the contribution to the attenuation of emissions and that towards adaptation (25% of the total for the moment).The missing finance on the part of developed countries will have to be offset in the coming years and national commitments of greenhouse gas reductions may be updated annually, and not every 5 years as before (even if Australiaand New Zealand has directly announced their usual dispensation).

This COP also allowed the adoption of the "Guide to implementing the Paris Agreement" (Paris RuleBook) negotiated for 5 years, whose carbon market rules between states on the one hand and internally on the other hand.If the rules of these markets ensure essentially that these exchanges lead to global reductions in emissions, certain uses in particular by the air sector could undermine the integrity of the.These rules are therefore a useful but insufficient basis that national laws or even national courts must strengthen.COP27 will therefore again be the place of evaluation of progress in the provision of finance and implementation of adaptation measures, negotiations of a mechanism to compensate for losses and damages as well as negotiations for the raising of national objectives.In parallel, countries must demonstrate the viability of their existing commitments and the solutions they promote, in particular via the new carbon market whose efficiency remains to be demonstrated.Civil companies, local players and companies must also define the contours of what fair transitions can be so that COPs are becoming more and more the place of sharing solutions to accelerate the transition.

Text and photo: Yann Robiou Du Pont.